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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Belgium 3-0 Türkiye: Match Analysis & Model Review

Belgium 3-0 Türkiye in the UEFA Nations League, Friday, October 2: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 3-0 win for Belgium over Türkiye in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, October 2, with the final score at 3-0 after Belgium led 1-0 at half-time. Only Belgium ever led, and Belgium eventually held a three-goal lead at 3-0.

Kevin De Bruyne scored a brace, and Romelu Lukaku added the other goal as Türkiye finished without scoring. The possession figures were 45% for Belgium and 55% for Türkiye, so the scoreline came despite Türkiye having more of the ball.

How it unfolded

Kevin De Bruyne opened the scoring for Belgium in the 10th minute, making it 1-0. That was still the score at half-time, with Belgium holding the advantage at the interval.

Kevin De Bruyne scored again in the 59th minute, extending the lead to 2-0. Romelu Lukaku completed the scoring in the 76th minute, bringing the match to 3-0. The goals came at separate points in the match, and Belgium remained the only side to lead.

The numbers

The recorded shots were 2 for Belgium and 0 for Türkiye; shots on target were 1 and 0, respectively. The possession split was 45% to Belgium and 55% to Türkiye. Those figures describe different aspects of the contest: possession alone did not translate into a goal for Türkiye.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Belgium scored three goals, while Türkiye scored no goals, for three goals in all. The scoring record gives Kevin De Bruyne two goals, with Romelu Lukaku supplying the remaining goal.

Standout performers

Belgium's best-rated player was S. Lammens, with a rating of 9.6. Türkiye's best-rated player was A. Güler, rated 7.0. The player ratings identify the leading individual performances for each side, while the scoring record shows how Belgium turned its goals into the result.

How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm's model gave Belgium a win probability of 59.8%, a draw probability of 21.6%, and a Türkiye win probability of 18.6%. These are estimates. Its most likely outcome was Belgium to win, and it gave the actual result a probability of 59.8%; the model's most likely outcome happened.

The forecast identified the result that arrived. The match then supplied a clear account of how: Belgium scored through Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, while Türkiye did not find the net.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Belgium vs Türkiye

Fri, Oct 2 · 2:45 PM ET · Stade Maurice Dufrasne

Full time

3–0

Half-time 1–0

  • 10'Kevin De Bruyne1–0
  • 59'Kevin De Bruyne2–0
  • 76'Romelu Lukaku3–0

The model before the game

Belgium
59.8%
Draw
21.6%
Türkiye
18.6%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

BelgiumStatisticTürkiye
2shots0
45%possession55%
1shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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