Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Belgium 3–0 Türkiye. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Belgium host Türkiye in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, October 2 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with the teams occupying different positions in League A - Group A. Goalorithm’s model points towards Belgium, while its leading scoreline allows for Türkiye to score; the match is at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Liege.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome order is a Belgium win (61.2%), then a draw (20.9%), then a Türkiye win (17.9%), making a Belgium win its likeliest result. Its leading scoreline is 2-1, followed among the listed possibilities by 1-1 and 2-0; those outcomes include both a draw and a Belgium win without conceding, alongside the model’s top-scoring prediction.
The model projects over 2.5 goals at 65.1%, with under 2.5 goals at 34.9% as the alternative. It gives both teams a goal in 60.6% of projections; in 39.4%, at least one side fails to score. Taken together, those figures leave room for either a game with goals at both ends or a shutout, while the leading scoreline has both teams on the board.
Expected goals are 2.3 for Belgium and 1.2 for Türkiye. The model’s lean is Belgium to win. Its numbers point to a Belgium win as the central outcome, but the draw and away-win probabilities remain part of the forecast; the scoreline projections also show that the model does not settle on a single exact result.