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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden: Match Analysis & Model Review

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden in the UEFA Nations League, Friday, October 2: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden played out a 1-1 draw in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, October 2, with the teams level at 0-0 before either goal arrived. Viktor Gyökeres put Sweden ahead and Kerim Alajbegovic restored parity, leaving both sides with a share of the points.

The match finished with one goal for Bosnia & Herzegovina and one goal for Sweden, with two goals across the game. Only Sweden ever led; the score was levelled once.

How it unfolded

The sides went in at half-time with the score at 0-0. The first goal came in the 61st minute, when Viktor Gyökeres scored for Sweden to make it 0-1.

Bosnia & Herzegovina answered in the 80th minute. Kerim Alajbegovic scored for Bosnia & Herzegovina, making it 1-1; that was the final goal, and the match ended level.

The numbers

Bosnia & Herzegovina registered 1 shot, with 1 on target. Sweden recorded 1 shot, including 1 on target. The match finished with one goal for Bosnia & Herzegovina, one goal for Sweden and two goals overall.

Possession was 55% for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 45% for Sweden. The corner figures were 1 for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 0 for Sweden; the saves figures were 1 and 1, respectively. The score remained level after the equaliser, and neither side added another goal.

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Standout performers

Kerim-Sam Alajbegović was Bosnia & Herzegovina's best-rated player, earning 7.3 and scoring 1 goal. His goal brought Bosnia & Herzegovina level, with the finish recorded as the game's equaliser.

For Sweden, V. Gyökeres was the best-rated player, with 8.2 and 1 goal. His goal gave Sweden the lead. The two players identified as their sides' best-rated both contributed a goal to the scoring.

How the model called it

The model's probabilities are estimates. Before kickoff, it gave Bosnia & Herzegovina a 33.8% chance of winning, the draw 26.5%, and Sweden a 39.8% chance. The model's most likely outcome was Sweden to win, while its probability for the actual result was 26.5%.

The match ended in a draw, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The final score 1-1 was the model's 1st-likeliest score. The model's outcome call and its scoreline call describe different things: one identifies the predicted result, while the other gives the predicted exact score.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden

Fri, Oct 2 · 2:45 PM ET · Stadion Bilino Polje

Full time

1–1

Half-time 0–0

  • 61'Viktor Gyökeres0–1
  • 80'Kerim Alajbegovic1–1

The model before the game

Bosnia & Herzegovina
33.8%
Draw
26.5%
Sweden
39.8%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

Bosnia & HerzegovinaStatisticSweden
1saves1
1shots1
1corners0
55%possession45%
1shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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