Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 Sweden. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Bosnia & Herzegovina host Sweden in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, October 2 at 2:45 p.m. ET, with both sides placed in League B - Group D. Sweden are above Bosnia & Herzegovina in the standings, and the model’s likeliest outcome is a Sweden win. The match will be played at Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica.
The group positions give this fixture a clear context: Bosnia & Herzegovina have 4 points from 2 games, while Sweden have 6 points from 2 games. Sweden sit above Bosnia & Herzegovina. The model’s forecast also points towards Sweden, while its score projections leave room for a close game.
What the model expects
The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Sweden win (42.3%), then a Bosnia & Herzegovina win (30.9%), then a draw (26.8%). These probabilities are estimates. Its expected-goals figures are Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.3 and Sweden 1.6, a projection that gives Sweden the greater share of the expected scoring. The most likely exact scores are 1-1 (11.7%), 1-2 (8.6%) and 0-1 (8.4%).
For the total-goals line, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 55.5% and under 2.5 goals at 44.5%. It assigns 58.2% to both teams scoring and 41.8% to at least one side failing to score. The leading exact-score forecast is level, even though the overall outcome order places a Sweden win first. Those are different parts of the forecast: one identifies the likeliest individual score, while the other distributes probability across the three possible match outcomes.