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Match analysis · UEFA Nations League

Research workspace

Latvia 1-2 Montenegro: Match Analysis & Model Review

Latvia 1-2 Montenegro in the UEFA Nations League, Friday, October 2: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Montenegro beat Latvia in the UEFA Nations League, with Vasilije Adzic scoring in the 3rd minute and adding another after the interval. Markuss Strods reduced the deficit in the closing stages, but the match finished a 2-1 win for Montenegro over Latvia.

At the break, Latvia 0-1 Montenegro; the final score was Latvia 1-2 Montenegro. Only Montenegro ever led, and Montenegro reached a two-goal lead at 0-2. The sequence left Latvia chasing the game after Montenegro had established its advantage, while Markuss Strods’ goal gave the closing stages a different scoreline without changing the outcome.

How it unfolded

Vasilije Adzic put Montenegro ahead in the 3rd minute, making it 0-1. He scored again in the 56th minute, when Montenegro moved to 0-2; Vasilije Adzic completed a brace.

Latvia’s response came in the 82nd minute, when Markuss Strods made it 1-2. That was the final goal. The scoring sequence tells the central story: Montenegro took the lead early, extended it after half-time, and Latvia’s late reply came while Montenegro still led.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Latvia recorded 59% possession and Montenegro 41%. The shot totals were 3 for Latvia and 4 for Montenegro; the shots-on-target figures were 1 and 1, respectively. The corner figures were 1 for Latvia and 0 for Montenegro; the save totals were 0 for Latvia and 1 for Montenegro.

Latvia recorded one goal, while Montenegro scored two goals; there were three goals in all. Both of Montenegro’s goals came from Vasilije Adzic. Latvia’s late goal came from Markuss Strods, narrowing the scoreline after Montenegro had built its lead.

Standout performers

Vasilije Adžić was Montenegro’s best-rated player, earning 9.4 with 2 goals. His goals provided the scoring for Montenegro and established the lead that Latvia had to pursue.

L. Vapne was Latvia’s best-rated player, receiving 7.2. Markuss Strods supplied Latvia’s goal, while Vasilije Adžić’s contribution was decisive on the scoresheet. The ratings identify the leading performers for each side, with Vasilije Adžić’s scoring central to the result.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Latvia a win at 18.5%, a draw at 26.2% and a Montenegro win at 55.3%. Its most likely outcome was Montenegro to win, with the actual result assigned 55.3%.

The model's most likely outcome happened. The final result followed the outcome the model had identified as most likely before kickoff. Vasilije Adzic’s early opener and second goal supplied the decisive margin, while Markuss Strods’ reply came too late to alter the result.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Nations League

Latvia vs Montenegro

Fri, Oct 2 · 12:00 PM ET · Skonto

Full time

1–2

Half-time 0–1

  • 3'Vasilije Adzic0–1
  • 56'Vasilije Adzic0–2
  • 82'Markuss Strods1–2

The model before the game

Latvia
18.5%
Draw
26.2%
Montenegro
55.3%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

LatviaStatisticMontenegro
0saves1
3shots4
1corners0
59%possession41%
1shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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