Published September 28, 2026 · Updated October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Latvia 1–2 Montenegro. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Latvia host Montenegro in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, October 2, with kick-off at 12:00 p.m. ET. The model makes Montenegro the likeliest winner, while the group table also has Montenegro sit above Latvia. Those are the central numbers behind a fixture in which Latvia need a result to improve their current position, and Montenegro arrive at the top of the group.
The match is at Skonto, Riga. The model’s expected-goals figures are 0.9 for Latvia and 1.6 for Montenegro. Its likeliest exact score is 0-1, pointing to a potentially tight contest.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Montenegro win (52.3%), then a draw (27.3%), then a Latvia win (20.4%). Its likeliest result is a Montenegro win, and the bookmakers’ equivalent ordering is a Montenegro win (52%), then a draw (26.4%), then a Latvia win (21.6%). The model gives Montenegro 52.3%, in line with the bookmakers’ 52%.
The goals projections lean towards under 2.5 goals at 57.6%, rather than over 2.5 goals at 42.4%. The model gives both teams scoring 44.5%, while its figure for at least one side failing to score is 55.5%; that latter outcome does not necessarily mean a goalless draw. Together, these figures leave room for a game in which one side supplies the decisive goal without a high total.