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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

Martinique 2-1 Honduras: Match Analysis & Model Review

Martinique 2-1 Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League, Friday, October 2: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Martinique beat Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League on Friday, October 2, with a 2-1 win for Martinique over Honduras and a final score of 2-1. Honduras struck first, but Martinique levelled before half-time and Jonathan Mexique settled the match late. The result came after an evening in which Honduras held most of the possession, while Martinique found the decisive goal in the closing stages.

The sequence of goals gave both sides a lead and brought the score level once, before Martinique’s late finish resolved the contest. The sides went into the interval at 1-1, leaving the match open until the final goal.

How it unfolded

Erick puerto put Honduras ahead in the 8th minute, making it 0-1. Jonathan Varane equalised for Martinique in the 40th minute; after the sides reached the break at 1-1, Jonathan Mexique scored for Martinique in the 88th minute to make it 2-1.

The opener gave Honduras the early advantage, but Jonathan Varane’s finish brought Martinique back into the match before the interval. Neither side had settled the result by half-time. Jonathan Mexique’s goal arrived in the closing stages and proved decisive, completing Martinique’s comeback.

The numbers

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

The match finished with two goals for Martinique and one goal for Honduras, three goals in all. Martinique recorded 1 shot and 1 on target; Honduras had 4 shots and 1 on target. Possession was 28% for Martinique and 72% for Honduras, a clear indication of how much of the ball Honduras had without turning that control into a victory.

The corner counts were 0 and 1, while the saves were 0 and 1, respectively. The figures make for a striking contrast: Honduras had the greater share of possession, but the scoreline belonged to Martinique. Martinique’s goals came at important moments, first to restore parity and then to decide the match.

Standout performers

J. Varane was Martinique’s best-rated player, with a rating of 7.9 and 1 goal. The goal supplied the equaliser that changed the immediate direction of the match, giving Martinique a foothold after Honduras had opened the scoring.

Honduras’ E. Puerto earned 7.7 and also finished with 1 goal. The early goal put Honduras in front, but it was not enough to secure the result. Both sides’ highest-rated players found the net, though Martinique’s scorer was part of the winning side.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave Martinique a win probability of 23.5%, a draw 27.8% and a Honduras win 48.7%; its pre-match favourite was Honduras to win. The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

Honduras’ early lead was consistent with the model’s pre-match preference, but Martinique’s equaliser kept the game level and the late winner decided it. The result therefore landed on the outcome the model had assigned the smaller win probability, rather than its most likely outcome.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

Martinique vs Honduras

Fri, Oct 2 · 8:00 PM ET · Stade Pierre-Aliker

Full time

2–1

Half-time 1–1

  • 8'erick puerto0–1
  • 40'Jonathan Varane1–1
  • 88'Jonathan Mexique2–1

The model before the game

Martinique
23.5%
Draw
27.8%
Honduras
48.7%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

MartiniqueStatisticHonduras
0saves1
1shots4
0corners1
28%possession72%
1shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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