Published September 30, 2026 · Updated October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Martinique 2–1 Honduras. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Martinique host Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League on Friday, October 2, with kick-off at 8:00 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Honduras win. The match is at Stade Pierre-Aliker, Fort-de-France.
What the model expects
Goalorithm’s outcome estimates are a Honduras win (51%), then a draw (26.4%), then a Martinique win (22.6%). These are estimates, and the model’s view gives Honduras the likeliest result while leaving probability with a draw or a Martinique win.
The expected-goals figures are 1 for Martinique and 1.5 for Honduras. The model’s leading exact score is 0-1, at 12.9%; next come 1-1 at 11.7% and 0-0 at 9.5%. Those scorelines offer contrasting possibilities: a narrow Honduras win, a level match with both sides scoring, or a goalless draw. The model assigns a probability to each, with 0-1 its leading exact-score prediction.
The model gives under 2.5 goals at 53.5% and over 2.5 goals at 46.5%. Its both-teams-to-score estimate is 48.8%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 51.2%. That latter measure includes outcomes in which one team scores and the other does not, as well as a goalless draw; it is not simply another way of describing a stalemate.
The central read is the model’s likeliest result, a Honduras win, alongside its expected-goals figures for both sides. The leading scoreline has Honduras winning without conceding, while the next option has both teams on the scoresheet. The score predictions also include a goalless draw, leaving more than one possible shape to the match.