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Match analysis · Friendlies

Research workspace

Colombia 0-1 Paraguay: Match Analysis & Model Review

Colombia 0-1 Paraguay in a friendly, Friday, October 2: how the goal came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Paraguay beat Colombia 0-1 in a friendly on Friday, October 2, with H. A. Benitez’s goal deciding a match that was level at the break. Colombia had 58% possession and recorded 14 shots, but Paraguay left with the win after scoring the only goal.

The result was a 1-0 win for Paraguay over Colombia. Colombia’s attempts did not produce a goal, while Paraguay found the finish that settled the contest. The score remained close throughout, and the decisive moment came after half-time.

How it unfolded

The sides reached half-time at 0-0, with neither having scored. H. A. Benitez put Paraguay ahead in the 56th minute, making it 0-1; only Paraguay ever led. Colombia did not find an equaliser, and that goal settled the match.

The numbers

Colombia recorded 14 shots and Paraguay 5. The shots-on-target figures were 2 for Colombia and 2 for Paraguay. Paraguay’s efforts on target included the goal that separated the teams, while Colombia could not convert its attempts.

Possession stood at 58% for Colombia and 42% for Paraguay. The corner count was 3 to 1, while the saves figures were 1 for Colombia’s goalkeeper and 2 for Paraguay’s. The numbers show Colombia had the greater share of possession and shot volume, but neither measure brought a goal. Paraguay’s goal totals were no goals for Colombia and one goal for Paraguay, with one goal in all.

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Matches
Predictions
My Picks

Colombia’s figures point to a side that retained possession and generated shooting opportunities, yet could not turn either into a goal. Paraguay scored despite its possession share, and its efforts on target proved sufficient to decide the match. The final score reflects a narrow result, with no further goals after the breakthrough.

How the model called it

Before kick-off, the model gave Colombia a win probability of 53.2%, a draw 26.7% and a Paraguay win 20.2%. These probabilities are estimates. Colombia to win was the model’s most likely outcome, while it assigned the actual result 20.2%.

The result went against the model's most likely outcome. Paraguay secured the win through the goal from H. A. Benitez, while Colombia’s possession and attempts did not change the score.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Friendlies

Colombia vs Paraguay

Fri, Oct 2 · 8:00 PM ET · Sports Illustrated Stadium

Full time

0–1

Half-time 0–0

  • 56'H. A. Benitez0–1

The model before the game

Colombia
53.2%
Draw
26.7%
Paraguay
20.2%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

ColombiaStatisticParaguay
1saves2
14shots5
3corners1
58%possession42%
2shots on target2
Open the Match Center

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