Published September 29, 2026 · Updated October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Colombia 0–1 Paraguay. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Colombia host Paraguay in a friendly on Friday, October 2 at 8:00 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Colombia win, although its leading exact-score prediction is a draw. Recent form offers a different thread: Colombia arrive unbeaten in their last 3, while Paraguay arrive 2 wins in a row.
There is a close contest in the model’s expected-goals estimate, with Colombia at 1.3 and Paraguay at 1.1. The recent meeting also ended level, giving this fixture a current point of reference without deciding what comes next.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates. The model gives Colombia 53.1% to win, a draw 26.6%, and Paraguay 20.3%; its outcome order is a Colombia win (53.1%), then a draw (26.6%), then a Paraguay win (20.3%).
For total goals, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 56.5% and over 2.5 goals at 43.5%. It gives both teams a 48.8% chance of scoring, while its probability that at least one side fails to score is 51.2%.
The leading exact scores are 1-1 at 13.4%, 0-0 at 11.1%, and 1-0 at 10.4%. A draw therefore features among the model’s most prominent score predictions, alongside a narrow Colombia win. The bookmakers’ outcome order is a Colombia win (54.8%), then a draw (26.3%), then a Paraguay win (18.9%); the model gives a Colombia win 53.1%, below the bookmakers' 54.8%.