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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

St. Lucia 3-0 Guadeloupe: Match Analysis & Model Review

St. Lucia 3-0 Guadeloupe in the CONCACAF Nations League, Friday, October 2: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

St. Lucia beat Guadeloupe 3-0 in the CONCACAF Nations League on Friday, October 2, with all the scoring completed before the final whistle. Caniggia Elva opened the scoring from the penalty spot, and Arkelle Jude-Boyd and Donavan Phillip added goals to secure a 3-0 win for St. Lucia over Guadeloupe.

At half-time, St. Lucia led 2-0. Guadeloupe did not score, while St. Lucia added another goal after the break to reach a three-goal lead. St. Lucia’s scoring came in both halves, and Guadeloupe ended the match without a goal. The final margin reflected a match in which only one side found the net.

How it unfolded

Caniggia Elva converted a penalty in the 18th minute to put St. Lucia ahead, making it 1-0. Arkelle Jude-Boyd scored in the 35th minute for 2-0, giving St. Lucia the lead at the interval. The opening goal came from the penalty spot; the next extended the lead before half-time.

Donavan Phillip made it 3-0 in the 57th minute, establishing a three-goal lead for St. Lucia. St. Lucia held that margin through the end of the match; only St. Lucia ever led. All the goals came from St. Lucia, and Guadeloupe finished without scoring. The order of the goals tells the story of a lead built before the break and extended in the second half.

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Matches
Predictions
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The numbers

St. Lucia recorded 3 shots and Guadeloupe 1; the shots on target were 1 and 0 respectively. Possession was 62% for St. Lucia and 38% for Guadeloupe. The figures show that St. Lucia had more of the ball, while the recorded shots on target were limited for both sides.

The corner count was 2 for St. Lucia and 1 for Guadeloupe. St. Lucia scored three goals, Guadeloupe no goals, making three goals in all. St. Lucia scored in each half, while Guadeloupe did not get on the scoresheet. The match numbers pair a clear possession share for the winners with a modest total of recorded attempts and corners.

Standout performers

Arkelle Nicholas Cecil Jude-Boyd was St. Lucia’s best-rated player, earning 8.2 and scoring 1 goal. His goal came in the 35th minute, when St. Lucia moved further ahead. His contribution put the scorer among the side’s most notable performers, and the rating identifies him as its best-rated player on the day.

Mickaël Alphonse was Guadeloupe’s best-rated player, with a rating of 7.0. Guadeloupe finished without a goal, while Mickaël Alphonse was the side’s standout by the rating measure. The ratings single out a player from each team, despite the contrasting team outcomes.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave St. Lucia a win probability of 31.8%, a draw 25.5%, and a Guadeloupe win 42.7%; its most likely outcome was Guadeloupe to win.

The model assigned the actual result a probability of 31.8%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The match finished with a 3-0 win for St. Lucia over Guadeloupe. The model’s pre-match view and the final result therefore pointed to different outcomes, with St. Lucia taking the win and Guadeloupe unable to score.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

St. Lucia vs Guadeloupe

Fri, Oct 2 · 3:00 PM ET · BFA Technical Centre

Full time

3–0

Half-time 2–0

  • 18'Caniggia Elva (penalty)1–0
  • 35'Arkelle Jude-Boyd2–0
  • 57'Donavan Phillip3–0

The model before the game

St. Lucia
31.8%
Draw
25.5%
Guadeloupe
42.7%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

St. LuciaStatisticGuadeloupe
3shots1
2corners1
62%possession38%
1shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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