Published September 30, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: St. Lucia 3–0 Guadeloupe. Read the match analysis →
Preview
St. Lucia host Guadeloupe in the CONCACAF Nations League on Friday, October 2, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Guadeloupe win, while its outcome order also leaves a draw and a St. Lucia win in the picture. The match will be played at BFA Technical Centre, Bridgetown, and the most recent meeting ended Guadeloupe 2-0 St. Lucia (October 2023).
The model's probabilities are estimates. Its forecast gives the fixture a clear central question: can Guadeloupe turn its predicted edge into a win, or will St. Lucia make the result closer than that outcome order suggests? The scoring estimates add another dimension, with the model projecting goals for both sides and placing its leading exact-score possibilities across a win, a draw and a goalless result. Those different paths make the model's overall preference distinct from a claim that one particular score is assured.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Guadeloupe win (50.1%), then a draw (25.5%), then a St. Lucia win (24.4%). Its expected-goals figures are 1 for St. Lucia and 1.5 for Guadeloupe. They represent the model's scoring expectations for each side, rather than a prediction that either team will finish on a specific total.
For the total-goals line, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%. Its estimate for both teams to score is 51.5%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 48.5%. That second measure includes matches in which one team scores and the other does not, as well as a goalless draw.