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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

Barbados 4-1 Bermuda: Match Analysis & Model Review

Barbados 4-1 Bermuda in the CONCACAF Nations League, Friday, October 2: how the goals came, the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Barbados turned an early deficit into a 4-1 win for Barbados over Bermuda in the CONCACAF Nations League, with goals before the break changing the direction of the match. The final score was 4-1, and the interval score was 3-1; Barbados added once more late on to complete the scoring.

How it unfolded

Bermuda struck first when Djair Parfitt Williams scored in the 8th minute, putting 0-1 on the board. Barbados levelled through Thierry Gale in the 26th minute, and Andreas Applewhaite put them ahead in the 29th minute.

Thierry Gale scored in the 41st minute to make it 3-1 at the interval. After the equaliser, Barbados scored again before the break through Andreas Applewhaite and Thierry Gale, then Niall stephen reid struck in the 86th minute. Both sides led at some point; the lead changed hands once; the score was levelled once, and Barbados ultimately held a three-goal lead at 4-1.

The numbers

The final tally was four goals for Barbados and one goal for Bermuda, with five goals altogether. Possession was shared, with Barbados on 50% and Bermuda on 50%.

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The shot count was 2 for Barbados and 0 for Bermuda. Neither side recorded a shot on target: Barbados had 0 and Bermuda had 0.

Standout performers

T. Gale was Barbados' best-rated player, with a rating of 9.5 and 2 goals and 1 assist. T. Gale scored the equaliser and added another goal before half-time, while Andreas Applewhaite also scored during Barbados' first-half turnaround.

For Bermuda, D. Parfitt-Williams earned the side's best rating, 7.4, with 1 goal. D. Parfitt-Williams scored the opener, but Barbados levelled and moved in front before the interval.

How the model called it

Before the match, the model gave Barbados a win probability of 50.2%, a draw 22.9% and a Bermuda win 26.9%. These are estimates. Its most likely outcome was Barbados to win, and the model's most likely outcome happened.

Bermuda scored first, but Barbados restored parity, took the lead before half-time and added a late goal.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

Barbados vs Bermuda

Fri, Oct 2 · 8:00 PM ET · BFA Technical Centre

Full time

4–1

Half-time 3–1

  • 8'Djair Parfitt Williams0–1
  • 26'Thierry Gale1–1
  • 29'Andreas Applewhaite2–1
  • 41'Thierry Gale3–1
  • 86'Niall stephen reid4–1

The model before the game

Barbados
50.2%
Draw
22.9%
Bermuda
26.9%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

BarbadosStatisticBermuda
2shots0
50%possession50%
0shots on target0
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