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GOALORITHM / NFL

Game analysis · college football

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Northwestern Wildcats 34-13 Penn State Nittany Lions: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 34-13 win for the Northwestern Wildcats over the Penn State Nittany Lions in college football, Friday, October 2: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 3, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

The Northwestern Wildcats beat the Penn State Nittany Lions 34-13 in college football on Friday, October 2. The Northwestern Wildcats finished with 413 rushing yards, while the Penn State Nittany Lions had 48; the ground-game contrast accompanied a decisive result. The Northwestern Wildcats also held the ball for 36:05, compared with 23:55 for the Penn State Nittany Lions.

The numbers

The Northwestern Wildcats totaled 506 yards to 291 for the Penn State Nittany Lions. Net passing yards went the other way: the Penn State Nittany Lions had 243, and the Northwestern Wildcats had 93.

The Northwestern Wildcats recorded 25 first downs and converted 41.7% on third down; the Penn State Nittany Lions posted 20 first downs and converted 35.7%. The Northwestern Wildcats had 1 turnover, while the Penn State Nittany Lions had 2.

Top performers

For the Northwestern Wildcats, Caleb Komolafe ran for 188 yards on 25 carries, with a touchdown, and quarterback Aidan Chiles completed 10 of 14 passes for 93 yards. Griffin Wilde caught 2 passes for 36 yards; defender Braydon Brus had a sack and an interception; kicker Jackson Kleather made 2 of 3 field goals.

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For the Penn State Nittany Lions, quarterback Rocco Becht completed 26 of 41 passes for 243 yards, with a touchdown and 2 interceptions, while Chase Sowell caught 5 passes for 68 yards, with a touchdown. Carson Hansen ran for 19 yards on 4 carries, with a touchdown; defender Tony Rojas had a sack; kicker Ryan Barker made 0 of 1 field goals.

How the model called it

Goalorithm’s pregame probabilities were estimates. The model gave the Northwestern Wildcats 25.5% to win and the Penn State Nittany Lions 74.5%; its favorite was the Penn State Nittany Lions to win. The result went against the model's favorite: 25.5% was the model’s chance for the team that won. The model had the Penn State Nittany Lions by 8.5 points, but the Northwestern Wildcats won by 21 points.

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

college football

Northwestern Wildcats vs Penn State Nittany Lions

Fri, Oct 2 · 8:00 PM ET

Final

34–13

The model before the game

Northwestern Wildcats
25.5%
Penn State Nittany Lions
74.5%

The result went against the model's favourite.

The numbers

Northwestern WildcatsStatisticPenn State Nittany Lions
1turnovers2
25first downs20
506total yards291
413rushing yards48
93net passing yards243
36:05time of possession23:55
41.7%third-down conversion rate35.7%
Open the Game Center

Thu, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET

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