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Match analysis · CONCACAF Nations League

Research workspace

Bonaire 2-3 Grenada: Match Analysis & Model Review

Bonaire 2-3 Grenada in the CONCACAF Nations League, Friday, October 2: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 2, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Grenada secured a 3-2 win for Grenada over Bonaire in the CONCACAF Nations League on Friday, October 2, overturning a 2-0 deficit against Bonaire. The interval score put Bonaire in front, but the final score belonged to Grenada: 2-3.

The numbers

The final tally was five goals, with Bonaire scoring two goals and Grenada scoring three goals. The gap between the half-time and full-time scores shows that the match turned after the interval, though the scorelines alone do not establish when the goals arrived or how the shift unfolded.

Bonaire registered 2 shots and Grenada had 0; the on-target figures were 1 and 0, respectively. Those totals make the contrast in recorded attempts stark, while the result shows that the side with no recorded shots still scored three goals. The numbers do not explain the circumstances of those goals, but they underline how little the shot count alone says about the final outcome.

Possession was 36% for Bonaire and 64% for Grenada. That distribution describes how much of the ball each side had across the match, not what either did with it in particular moments. The corner count was 0 for Bonaire and 2 for Grenada, another narrow measure of the contest rather than a complete account of its decisive moments. Taken together, the match statistics offer different snapshots: possession, shots and corners describe separate aspects of play, while the score records the result that mattered.

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How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s estimates were 21.1% for a Bonaire win, 25.7% for a draw and 53.2% for a Grenada win. The model’s stated pre-match favourite was Grenada to win; it gave the actual outcome 53.2%.

The result matched the model’s most likely outcome: the model's most likely outcome happened. That is a correct call on the winner, even though the half-time score had Bonaire ahead. The model’s forecast concerned the eventual outcome, and Grenada finished with the win after the match changed course following the interval.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

CONCACAF Nations League

Bonaire vs Grenada

Fri, Oct 2 · 8:00 PM ET · Hasely Crawford Stadium

Full time

2–3

Half-time 2–0

The model before the game

Bonaire
21.1%
Draw
25.7%
Grenada
53.2%

The model's most likely outcome happened.

The numbers

BonaireStatisticGrenada
2shots0
0corners2
36%possession64%
1shots on target0
Open the Match Center

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