Published October 1, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Full time: Bonaire 2–3 Grenada. Read the match analysis →
Preview
Bonaire host Grenada in the CONCACAF Nations League on Friday, October 2, with kick-off at 8:00 p.m. ET. The model’s outcome order puts Grenada first, while its expected-goals figures point to a greater attacking contribution from the visitors. The match is at Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain.
What the model expects
The model’s view of the result is a Grenada win (54.2%), then a draw (25.2%), then a Bonaire win (20.6%). These probabilities are estimates; they frame Grenada as the leading outcome, with a draw and a Bonaire win also in the forecast. The model’s likeliest result is a Grenada win.
Expected goals are Bonaire 0.9 and Grenada 1.7. That projection gives Grenada the larger expected contribution, while Bonaire’s figure leaves room for the hosts to get on the scoresheet. The leading exact-score forecasts are 0-1 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.1%) and 0-2 (10%). They cover both a Grenada win and a draw among the model’s most likely scorelines, rather than pointing to one certain outcome.
For the total, the model gives under 2.5 goals at 52.9% and over 2.5 goals at 47.1%. Its figures for both teams scoring are 48.1%; the chance that at least one side fails to score is 51.9%. That latter measure includes any scoreline in which one team does not score, not only a goalless draw.
The bookmakers’ margin-removed outcome order is a Grenada win (52.9%), then a draw (25%), then a Bonaire win (22.1%). The model’s view against those implied probabilities is the model gives a Grenada win 54.2%, above the bookmakers' 52.9%.