Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
The bookmakers' favourite won 9 of 15 games.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Dinamo Zagreb were the bookmakers' 58% favourites and lost 2–4.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Juventus were the bookmakers' 62% favourites and drew 2–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Sunderland were the bookmakers' 55% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Marseille were the bookmakers' 47% favourites and lost 0–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Beşiktaş were the bookmakers' 44% favourites and drew 2–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
Our model's call: right
Our model's call: wrong
Our blend's call: wrong
Our model's call: wrong
Our blend's call: wrong
Our blend's call: wrong
Our blend's call: right
Our blend's call: right
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: the James Madison Dukes were the bookmakers' 80% favourites and lost 31–34.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
How each source has done, last 30 days
Soccer
Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 60% of 373, after saying 53%: too cautious · Model (ours): too few to say (6) · Bookmakers or data provider: too few to say (1). Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
NFL/College
Bookmakers: their favourite won 66% of 240, after their prices said 68% · Model (ours): too few to say (2) · Default (home side): too few to say (2).
MLB
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: their favourite won 56% of 34, after their prices said 56%.
Basketball
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: too few to say (16).