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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

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Dinamo Zagreb 2-4 NEC Nijmegen: Match Analysis & Model Review

Dinamo Zagreb 2-4 NEC Nijmegen in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 22: how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

NEC Nijmegen secured a 4-2 win for NEC Nijmegen over Dinamo Zagreb in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, after the sides went in level at 2-2. The final score made for a decisive finish to a match that had been evenly poised at the interval, with Dinamo Zagreb scoring two goals and NEC Nijmegen scoring four goals.

How it unfolded

The score was 2-2 at half-time and 2-4 at the end. The facts establish the interval and final scores, but do not give the order of the goals.

The numbers

There were six goals in all, as the scoreline moved from a level interval to a win for NEC Nijmegen. That change is the central measure of the match: the sides had scored equally by half-time, while the final result belonged to NEC Nijmegen. The figures describe a game whose outcome was not settled by the score at the break; the final margin came in the remainder of the match.

The match took place at Stadion Maksimir. The scoreline gives a clear account of the outcome, but without a record of individual goal times it cannot show when the balance shifted or how either side's scoring was distributed across the match. What it does establish is a level contest at the interval followed by a winning final score for NEC Nijmegen.

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How the model called it

Before kickoff, Goalorithm's model gave Dinamo Zagreb a 57.5% chance of winning, a draw 23.2%, and NEC Nijmegen a 19.3% chance. These probabilities are estimates. The model's most likely outcome was Dinamo Zagreb to win, while the actual result was assigned 19.3%. The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The forecast therefore pointed to a different outcome from the one recorded on the pitch. Its stated most likely outcome was a Dinamo Zagreb win, yet NEC Nijmegen finished with the victory. The model's assessment of the result that occurred was 19.3%; that probability is part of the pre-match picture, not a description of the match's progress. The available scores show the change from a level half-time position to the final result, but offer no goal sequence to explain precisely when that change took shape.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen

Thu, Oct 22 · 12:45 PM ET · Stadion Maksimir

Full time

2–4

Half-time 2–2

The model before the game

Dinamo Zagreb
57.5%
Draw
23.2%
NEC Nijmegen
19.3%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

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