Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Sheffield Utd host Derby in the Championship on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 7:30 a.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Sheffield Utd win, while the standings and recent results offer a clear frame for the contest: Sheffield Utd sit above Derby, and the sides arrive after contrasting latest outcomes.
Sheffield Utd come into the fixture after a 1-0 away win against Bristol City on October 17; Derby most recently suffered a 1-0 home defeat to Stoke City on October 17. Those results give the teams different immediate reference points, but the model also assigns probabilities to a draw and an away win.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Sheffield Utd 49.2%, a draw 29.9% and Derby 20.9%; its likeliest result is a Sheffield Utd win.
The expected-goals figures are 1.4 for Sheffield Utd and 1.1 for Derby. The leading exact-score possibility is 1-1 at 13.3%, followed by 0-0 at 11.1% and 1-0 at 10.9%. Those scorelines put narrow margins and a level game among the model’s central possibilities.
For total goals, the model assigns under 2.5 goals at 55.8% and over 2.5 goals at 44.2%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 48.7%, while 51.3% is the estimate that at least one side will fail to score. These are separate views of the same match, and neither requires a particular winner.