Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Lincoln host Burnley in the Championship on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 10:00 a.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Lincoln win, while the table shows that Lincoln sit above Burnley. The model’s probabilities are estimates, and its match picture includes level expected-goal figures alongside a leading exact-score option of 1-1.
What the model expects
Its outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Lincoln win (42.5%), then a Burnley win (30.7%), then a draw (26.8%). The model gives over 2.5 goals at 57.5% and under 2.5 goals at 42.5%; it also gives 60.1% to both teams scoring and 39.9% to at least one side failing to score. The expected-goal figures are 1.5 for Lincoln and 1.5 for Burnley.
The leading exact-score options are 1-1 (11.8%), 2-1 (8%) and 1-2 (7.9%). Both teams scoring is the model’s more likely scenario than at least one side failing to score, while the goal outlook gives the edge to the over line. These figures point to a close contest, with a draw also represented among the model’s leading scorelines.
Form and standings
Lincoln’s recent sequence is DLLLW, amounting to 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats across 5 matches. They scored 4 goals and 13 conceded in those games and are without a win in their last 4. Their latest result was a 2-2 away draw with Millwall on October 17.
Burnley’s sequence is LDWDL: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats across 5 matches, with 9 goals scored and 8 conceded. They are without a win in their last 2, after a 2-1 home defeat to Wolves on October 16.