Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Portsmouth host Millwall in the Championship on Saturday, October 24, with a Millwall win (38.9%), then a Portsmouth win (34.4%), then a draw (26.6%). The teams arrive from different recent sequences: Portsmouth have 2 wins in a row, while Millwall are without a win in their last 2.
The match is at Fratton Park, Portsmouth, with kick-off at 7:30 a.m. ET. The model’s probabilities are estimates; its outlook points to a closely balanced contest, with a Millwall win the likeliest result.
What the model expects
The model gives Portsmouth 34.4%, a draw 26.6% and Millwall 38.9%. Its likeliest result is a Millwall win. The probabilities leave a substantial possibility of a draw alongside the win outcomes.
Expected goals are 1.6 for Portsmouth and 1.5 for Millwall. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 58.1% and under 2.5 goals at 41.9%; it gives both teams to score 60.6%, against 39.4% for at least one side failing to score.
The leading exact-score possibilities are 1-1 at 11.7%, 2-1 at 8.1% and 1-2 at 7.8%. These scorelines give a sense of the model’s projected range, with both a draw and wins for either side among its listed outcomes.
Form and standings
Portsmouth’s last 5 games read WWLDD, amounting to 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 6 goals scored and 5 conceded. The latest result was a 1-0 away win against Norwich on October 17, and the team have 2 wins in a row.