Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Charlton host Norwich in the Championship on Saturday, October 24, with both sides arriving after defeats and Norwich on a run of losses. The model's outcome order is a Charlton win (36.8%), then a Norwich win (33%), then a draw (30.2%); its estimates point to a closely balanced contest rather than a clear separation between the teams.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model gives Charlton 36.8%, a draw 30.2% and Norwich 33%. Its expected-goals figures are 1.4 for Charlton and 0.9 for Norwich, with the most likely scorelines 1-0 at 13.5%, 1-1 at 13% and 0-0 at 12.8%.
The model puts under 2.5 goals at 60.3% on the under and over 2.5 goals at 39.7% on the over. It gives both teams scoring 43.2%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 56.8%. Those figures leave a narrow scoreline in view, with the model assigning its largest single score probability to 1-0.
Form and standings
Charlton's recent sequence is LDDLD, comprising 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their latest result was a 2-0 away defeat to Watford on October 17; they are without a win in their last 5. Norwich's sequence is LLLLL: 5 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 12 conceded. They most recently recorded a 1-0 home defeat to Portsmouth on October 17, and are on 5 defeats in a row.
In the table, Charlton sit above Norwich. Charlton are 17th in Championship with 14 points from 11 games, while Norwich are 21st in Championship with 9 points from 11 games. Those standings frame a meeting between teams who have both been unable to turn their latest fixture into a result, though Norwich's run of defeats is the clearest immediate feature of their form.