Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Bolton host Middlesbrough in the Championship on Friday, October 23, with the match scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton. The model’s likeliest result is a Middlesbrough win, but its forecast leaves room for a draw and a Bolton win, while the league positions set a clear table context for the meeting.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Middlesbrough win (43.7%), then a draw (29.5%), then a Bolton win (26.8%). Its expected goals are 1.2 for Bolton and 1.4 for Middlesbrough, pointing to a forecast with goals expected from both sides.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 47.3% and under 2.5 goals at 52.7%. It has both teams scoring at 51.9%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 48.1%; that latter figure includes any score in which one team is held without a goal, not only a goalless draw.
The leading exact-score forecast is 1-1 (13.2%), followed by 0-0 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.1%). The list includes a level scoreline, a goalless draw and a Middlesbrough win to nil.
Form and standings
Bolton arrive after a 0-0 away draw with Southampton on October 17 and are unbeaten in their last 2. Across their recent run, they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. That sequence includes wins, a draw and a defeat.
Middlesbrough most recently recorded a 2-2 home draw with Cardiff on October 17 and are unbeaten in their last 5. Their recent return is 2 wins and 3 draws, alongside 10 goals scored and 8 conceded; the run has featured draws as well as wins, with no defeat in that span. Their latest match ended level after both sides scored.