Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
OFI host Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, with kick-off at 12:45 p.m. ET at Pankritio Stadium, Heraklion. The model's likeliest result is a Bayer Leverkusen win, while OFI come into the fixture after a 2-1 away defeat to Rennes on October 15.
The contrast in the table is clear: Bayer Leverkusen sit above OFI. The model also identifies Bayer Leverkusen to win as its lean for the match. That gives this fixture a defined forecast, but the result remains to be played; the model's probabilities are estimates.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Bayer Leverkusen win (68.4%), then a draw (19.4%), then an OFI win (12.1%). That makes a Bayer Leverkusen victory the central expectation in its forecast, with a draw and an OFI win also represented. The ordering describes the model's view of the possible outcomes, rather than a confirmed account of how the match will unfold.
For goals, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 54.9% and under 2.5 goals at 45.1%. Its both-teams-to-score assessment is 47.1%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 52.9%. Those are separate parts of the model's match outlook: one concerns the total-goals line, and the other whether both teams find the net.
Expected goals are 0.8 for OFI and 2.1 for Bayer Leverkusen. The likeliest exact scores are 0-2 at 12.1%, 0-1 at 11.6% and 1-1 at 9.1%. The score forecasts give readers a more specific picture of the model's expected match, while the outcome probabilities remain its broader assessment.