Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Dinamo Zagreb host NEC Nijmegen in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22 at 12:45 p.m. ET, at Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb. The model’s likeliest result is a Dinamo Zagreb win. The probabilities are estimates, and the forecast gives the meeting a clear direction while leaving room for other outcomes.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is a Dinamo Zagreb win (54.3%), then an NEC Nijmegen win (23.9%), then a draw (21.8%). Its expected goals are 1.7 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1 for NEC Nijmegen, pointing to a larger expected contribution from the hosts. The score estimates include 1-1 at 11.7%, 1-0 at 11.2% and 2-0 at 9.2%.
The goals estimates are over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%. The model gives both teams scoring 50.8%; its estimate for at least one side failing to score is 49.2%. These figures leave the model’s forecast finely balanced on the goals question, even as its match-outcome forecast leans toward Dinamo Zagreb.
Form and standings
Across their last 5 games, Dinamo Zagreb have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their most recent result was a 1-0 home win against Anderlecht on October 15, and they are unbeaten in their last 3. That latest win is a positive immediate reference point, though the broader record includes draws and defeats.
In the table, Dinamo Zagreb sit above NEC Nijmegen. Dinamo Zagreb sit 14th in UEFA Europa League with 4 points from 2 games, while NEC Nijmegen sit 27th in UEFA Europa League with 1 point from 2 games. The sides arrive with different totals from their opening competition matches, giving the fixture a clear standings context without changing the model’s focus on the result itself.