Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Sturm Graz host Marseille in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, with kick-off at 12:45 p.m. ET. The model’s central call is a Sturm Graz win, while the league table also has Sturm Graz sit above Marseille.
The forecast points towards a home win, but Marseille’s visit gives Sturm Graz an opportunity to turn their position in the competition into a result. The model’s figures are estimates.
What the model expects
The model gives Sturm Graz 54.5%, a draw 20.4% and Marseille 25.1%. Its outcome order is a Sturm Graz win (54.5%), then a Marseille win (25.1%), then a draw (20.4%), making a Sturm Graz win the likeliest result without ruling out either alternative.
Expected goals are 2 for Sturm Graz and 0.5 for Marseille. The most likely scorelines are 1-0 (16.4%), 2-0 (15.8%) and 3-0 (10.3%); each of those forecasts has Sturm Graz keeping Marseille off the scoresheet.
The model puts under 2.5 goals at 55.1% and over 2.5 goals at 44.9%. It gives both teams scoring 33.6%, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 66.4%. That second figure is about a team drawing a blank, not necessarily a goalless match. Taken together, the expected-goals and scoreline forecasts describe a game in which Sturm Graz are projected to do most of the scoring.
Form and standings
Sturm Graz’s latest listed result was a 3-0 away defeat to Bournemouth on October 15. Across their last 5, the record is 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 1 goal scored and 7 conceded. Their sequence is LDWLL, and they are without a win in their last 2. The recent record gives the model’s home-win call a mixed backdrop: Sturm Graz have not been winning consistently, and their latest outing ended in defeat.