Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Union St. Gilloise host Hapoel Beer Sheva in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, with kick-off scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET at Den Dreef, Heverlee. The league table has Union St. Gilloise above Hapoel Beer Sheva, while Goalorithm’s model gives the fixture a clear range of possible outcomes rather than a certainty.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Union St. Gilloise win (49.2%), then a draw (28.5%), then a Hapoel Beer Sheva win (22.3%). Its goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%, while the chance of both teams scoring is 51%; the chance of at least one side failing to score is 49%.
Expected goals are 1.6 for Union St. Gilloise and 1 for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The likeliest score is 1-1 at 11.8%, followed by 1-0 at 11.2% and 2-0 at 9%.
Form and standings
LDDD is Hapoel Beer Sheva’s record across its most recent 4 games: 3 draws and 1 defeat, with 2 goals scored and 3 conceded. The latest was a 2-1 away defeat to AZ Alkmaar on October 15.
Union St. Gilloise are 12th in UEFA Europa League with 4 points from 2 games; Hapoel Beer Sheva are 25th in UEFA Europa League with 1 point from 2 games. Union St. Gilloise sit above Hapoel Beer Sheva.