Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Lech Poznan host Sunderland in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22 at 12:45 p.m. ET. Sunderland sit above Lech Poznan, and the model’s likeliest result is a Sunderland win.
What the model expects
The model’s probabilities are estimates. Its outcome ordering is a Sunderland win (38.6%), then a Lech Poznan win (35.9%), then a draw (25.6%), with each result carrying a distinct share of the forecast rather than certainty about how the match will finish. The model’s likeliest result is a Sunderland win, at 38.6%.
The expected-goals figures are Lech Poznan 1.3 and Sunderland 1.4. Those projections offer a view of the scoring the model anticipates for each side, without settling the final score. For the match total, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%. It puts both teams to score at 53.5%, and at least one side to fail to score at 46.5%; those are separate possibilities, not opposite descriptions of a single exact score.
The leading exact-score possibilities are 1-1 at 12.5%, 0-1 at 9.1% and 1-0 at 8.7%. They span a draw, an away win and a home win. The model’s leading exact score is therefore not the same as its likeliest match outcome: the broader outcome forecast selects a Sunderland win.
Form and standings
Lech Poznan have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats across their last 5 games, with 14 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their most recent result was a 4-0 home defeat to Bayer Leverkusen on October 15, and they are on 2 defeats in a row. That latest result and current run frame the home side’s immediate task, while the record gives a wider snapshot of recent results.