Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
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Match report
Celje and Red Bull Salzburg finished level at 2-2 in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, sharing a 2-2 draw. The half-time score was 0-1, with Celje scoring two goals and Red Bull Salzburg scoring two goals. The match produced four goals in all, but neither side turned that scoring into a win.
The numbers
Before kickoff, Goalorithm's model gave a Celje win 27.7%, a draw 25.3% and a Red Bull Salzburg win 47%. These probabilities are estimates. The draw was therefore a recognised possibility in the model's forecast, and it became the final result; the figures describe the model's view before the match, not a guarantee of what would happen on the pitch.
The scoreline records a game in which both teams found the net and neither established a winning margin. That is the clearest statistical account available here: Celje scored, Red Bull Salzburg scored, and the points were shared. The half-time score supplies a snapshot from the interval, while the final score shows that the match ended level. Without a breakdown of when the goals came, the figures do not tell a more detailed story of how the score changed. They do, however, make the central outcome plain: this was not a win for either team.
The model's forecast and the match result answer different questions. The forecast set out estimated chances before kickoff; the final score records what happened. Its assessment of the draw was 25.3%, while its most likely outcome was Red Bull Salzburg to win. Those details frame the outcome without making the model's forecast a description of the events themselves. The score is the decisive record of the match, and it shows Celje and Red Bull Salzburg sharing the result rather than delivering the outcome the model had identified as most likely.