Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Celje host Red Bull Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22 at 3:00 p.m. ET. The model’s likeliest result is a Red Bull Salzburg win, while the teams arrive with contrasting recent records and different points totals in the competition.
The match will be played at Stadion Z’dežele, Celje. Celje are looking to respond to a run of defeats, while Red Bull Salzburg come into the fixture after a heavy loss of their own. The available standings put the sides at 35th in UEFA Europa League and 21st in UEFA Europa League, respectively.
What the model expects
The model’s probabilities are estimates. Its outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Red Bull Salzburg win (47.1%), then a Celje win (27.7%), then a draw (25.3%). The model gives Red Bull Salzburg the leading outcome, but also leaves room for a Celje win or a draw.
The model’s goals figures are over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 52.4%, with 47.6% for at least one side failing to score; that includes a blank for either team, not only a goalless draw.
Expected goals are 1.1 for Celje and 1.6 for Red Bull Salzburg. The leading correct-score possibilities are 1-1 at 12.2%, 0-1 at 10.4% and 1-2 at 8.8%. They include a draw and Red Bull Salzburg wins, but no Celje win.
Form and standings
Celje’s last 5 games read LLLDD, with 2 draws and 3 defeats and 5 goals scored and 11 conceded. The latest was a 3-0 home defeat to Omonia Nicosia on October 15, and the current run is 3 defeats in a row. That sequence makes a response to the latest result the immediate task for the hosts, with the model’s expected-goals figure setting out its scoring projection for them.