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GOALORITHM / FTB

Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

Research workspace

Celtic 1-2 Celta Vigo: Match Analysis & Model Review

Celtic 1-2 Celta Vigo in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 22: how the goals came and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

Celta Vigo beat Celtic 1-2 in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, with the decisive shift coming after a goalless first half. Celtic took the lead through Mika Baur, but Javier Rodríguez Galiano scored two goals for Celta Vigo to turn the match around and settle the result.

The sequence was clear: Celtic moved in front, Celta Vigo restored parity, and the visitors then went ahead. The match finished a 2-1 win for Celta Vigo over Celtic.

How it unfolded

The teams reached half-time at 0-0. Mika Baur scored for Celtic in the 47th minute, putting the home side ahead at 1-0. That lead lasted until the 68th minute, when Javier Rodríguez Galiano brought Celta Vigo level at 1-1.

The same scorer struck again in the 71st minute, giving Celta Vigo a 1-2 lead. The match’s lead story was that both sides led at some point; the lead changed hands once; the score was levelled once.

The numbers

Celtic scored one goal, Celta Vigo scored two goals, and the match contained three goals. Javier Rodríguez Galiano supplied two goals of Celta Vigo’s goals, recording a brace. The scoreline therefore reflects a match in which Celtic found the net but Celta Vigo finished with the winning total.

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Week
Predictions
My Tracker

Before kickoff, Goalorithm’s model gave Celtic a 44.5% chance of winning, a draw 27.9%, and a Celta Vigo win 27.7%. These probabilities are estimates.

Standout performers

Celta Vigo’s best-rated player was Javi Rodríguez, who received 8.9 and recorded 2 goals. His rating came alongside the scoring that changed the match from a Celtic lead to a Celta Vigo advantage.

For Celtic, M. Baur was the best-rated player, with 7.7 and 1 goal. The ratings identify the leading individual performances for each side, while the result was shaped by Mika Baur opening the scoring and Javier Rodríguez Galiano answering for Celta Vigo.

How the model called it

The model’s most likely outcome before kickoff was Celtic to win. It assigned the actual result an estimated 27.7%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

That makes the outcome a departure from the model’s pre-match call: Celtic were its selected winner, while Celta Vigo took the match. The model’s figures captured a preference for a Celtic win, but also left a stated probability for a Celta Vigo victory.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Celtic vs Celta Vigo

Thu, Oct 22 · 3:00 PM ET · Celtic Park

Full time

1–2

Half-time 0–0

  • 47'Mika Baur1–0
  • 68'Javier Rodríguez Galiano1–1
  • 71'Javier Rodríguez Galiano1–2

The model before the game

Celtic
44.5%
Draw
27.9%
Celta Vigo
27.7%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

Open the Match Center

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