Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Celtic host Celta Vigo in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET. Both sides arrive after defeats, and the model’s likeliest result is a Celtic win; its leading exact score, however, is level.
Celtic’s latest match was a 4-1 away defeat to Benfica on October 15, while Celta Vigo’s was a 2-1 home defeat to Juventus on October 15. Both teams are looking for their first points in the competition, and the model gives the home side the leading outcome probability.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are a Celtic win (44.5%), then a draw (27.9%), then a Celta Vigo win (27.7%).
The model projects Celtic for 1.4 expected goals and Celta Vigo for 1.1. Its leading score prediction is 1-1 at 12.8%, followed by 1-0 at 10.9% and 0-0 at 10.1%. The three leading scorelines include a draw, a narrow home win and a goalless result, leaving several different match patterns in the forecast.
For the total-goals outlook, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 44.9% and under 2.5 goals at 55.1%. It assigns 49.6% to both teams scoring and 50.4% to at least one side failing to score. These are separate views of the match: the latter outcome includes any scoreline in which one team does not find the net, not only a draw without goals.
Form and standings
Celtic’s recent sequence is LLWLW, with 2 wins and 3 defeats and 8 goals scored and 13 conceded. They are on 2 defeats in a row. The most recent entry in that run was a 4-1 away defeat to Benfica on October 15; the form also includes wins, though the latest result leaves a defeat as the immediate reference point.