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Match analysis · UEFA Europa League

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Sturm Graz 1-0 Marseille: Match Analysis & Model Review

Sturm Graz 1-0 Marseille in the UEFA Europa League, Thursday, October 22: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 24, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

A 1-0 win for Sturm Graz over Marseille in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, with Sturm Graz ahead 1-0 at the interval. Marseille had more possession and attempts, but Sturm Graz registered more shots on target and the higher expected-goals total.

The scoreline held after the break. Marseille’s share of the ball did not produce a goal, while Sturm Graz’s attacking output was sharper by the measures of accuracy and expected goals. The figures describe a match in which possession and the greater threat came from different sides.

How it unfolded

Sturm Graz had the lead at half-time, and the interval score was also the final score. The match finished with one goal for Sturm Graz and no goals for Marseille, making one goal overall.

The numbers

Sturm Graz took 13 shots, with 5 on target; Marseille had 14 attempts and 1 on target. Expected goals were 1.87 for Sturm Graz and 0.8 for Marseille. Those figures show the difference between Marseille’s volume of attempts and Sturm Graz’s greater accuracy and expected threat.

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Possession stood at 29% for Sturm Graz and 71% for Marseille. Marseille won 4 corners, compared with 2 for Sturm Graz. Sturm Graz’s goalkeeper made 1 save, while Marseille’s made 4 saves. Despite spending less time with the ball, Sturm Graz finished with the higher expected-goals figure and more attempts on target; Marseille’s greater possession and shot count did not change the score.

How the model called it

The pre-match probabilities are estimates. Goalorithm’s model gave Sturm Graz 32.4% to win, a draw 24.8% and Marseille 42.9%; its most likely outcome was Marseille to win. It gave the actual result 32.4%, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The final score 1-0 was the model's 1st-likeliest score. That score prediction and the model’s most likely outcome describe different calls: the exact-score selection matched the result, while the model’s preferred outcome did not.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

UEFA Europa League

Sturm Graz vs Marseille

Thu, Oct 22 · 12:45 PM ET · Stadion Graz-Liebenau

Full time

1–0

Half-time 1–0

The model before the game

Sturm Graz
32.4%
Draw
24.8%
Marseille
42.9%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

Sturm GrazStatisticMarseille
1saves4
13shots14
2corners4
29%possession71%
1.87expected goals0.8
5shots on target1
Open the Match Center

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