Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Read the preview written before kickoff →
Match report
Juventus and Rennes shared a draw in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22, with the final score recorded as 2-2. The half-time score was 1-2, and both sides finished with two goals; the match produced four goals overall. The scoreline therefore captures a contest in which neither team ended ahead, while the half-time position provides a different snapshot of the same match.
The numbers
Goalorithm’s pre-match estimates gave Juventus a 60.4% chance of winning, put the draw at 22.5%, and gave Rennes a 17.1% chance of victory. These are estimates, not certainties. The figures express the model’s view before kickoff: a Juventus win was its most likely single outcome, while a draw remained a distinct possibility and a Rennes win another possible result. The outcome probabilities describe expectations rather than a record of what happened on the pitch. Once the match was played, the final score supplied that answer: neither side won. The model’s draw estimate is the relevant pre-match figure for that outcome, while the win estimates describe the alternatives the model had also allowed for. Read together, the numbers show a clear pre-match preference for Juventus, but not a prediction that excluded a level result. The difference between a most likely outcome and the eventual outcome is central to interpreting the model: a preferred result is an estimate, not a guarantee that the match will finish that way.