Published October 21, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Juventus host Rennes in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 22 at 12:45 p.m. ET. The standings place the sides at different points in the competition, while Goalorithm’s model makes Juventus the likeliest winner and gives a separate view of the goals and scoreline possibilities. The match is at Allianz Stadium, Turin.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcomes, from likeliest down, are a Juventus win (58.3%), then a draw (23.8%), then a Rennes win (17.9%). Its lean is Juventus to win, and the expected-goals figures are 1.8 for Juventus and 0.9 for Rennes. The forecast gives Juventus the larger expected-goals figure, while the listed outcomes include a draw and a Rennes win as well as a Juventus win. It is a projection of this fixture, not a certainty about how it will unfold.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 49.2% and under 2.5 goals at 50.8% on the total-goals question. For both teams to score, it gives 48.1%; for at least one side to fail to score, it gives 51.9%. These are separate angles on the same match: the total-goals figures concern the combined score, while the both-teams-to-score figures concern whether each side finds the net. The model’s figures leave room for goals at either end, as well as for a scoreline in which one attack does not score.
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (11%) and 2-0 (10.7%). They cover a Juventus win and a draw, with Rennes yet to score in two of the listed possibilities. Those scorelines offer a more specific view of the model’s outlook, without covering every possible result.