Every number says whose it is. No sport's numbers are validated as better than the bookmakers' yet. How we grade
The bookmakers' favourite won 14 of 26 games.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: VfB Stuttgart were the bookmakers' 69% favourites and lost 2–3.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Stade Brestois 29 were the bookmakers' 43% favourites and lost 1–2.
Our blend's call: wrong
Upset: Nottingham Forest were the bookmakers' 42% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: Alaves were the bookmakers' 57% favourites and drew 1–1.
Our blend's call: wrong
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Our blend's call: right
Upset: the Milwaukee Bucks were the bookmakers' 52% favourites and lost 125–132.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: the Indiana Pacers were the bookmakers' 70% favourites and lost 105–121.
Upset: the Orlando Magic were the bookmakers' 52% favourites and lost 93–115.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: the Virginia Cavaliers were the bookmakers' 55% favourites and lost 16–19.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: the Air Force Falcons were the bookmakers' 69% favourites and lost 14–28.
Upset: the San Antonio Spurs were the bookmakers' 62% favourites and lost 110–114.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: the Golden State Warriors were the bookmakers' 59% favourites and lost 108–111.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
The bookmakers' favourite won.
Upset: the NC State Wolfpack were the bookmakers' 71% favourites and lost 28–31.
How each source has done, last 30 days
Soccer
Model + bookmakers blend (ours): its favourite won 60% of 373, after saying 53%: too cautious · Model (ours): too few to say (6) · Bookmakers or data provider: too few to say (1). Over 463 matches in the last 60 days, the bookmakers' closing prices were slightly more accurate than ours.
NFL/College
Bookmakers: their favourite won 66% of 240, after their prices said 68% · Model (ours): too few to say (2) · Default (home side): too few to say (2).
MLB
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: their favourite won 56% of 34, after their prices said 56%.
Basketball
No graded model of ours yet · Bookmakers: too few to say (16).