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Game analysis · college football

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Duke Blue Devils 19-16 Virginia Cavaliers: Game Analysis & Model Review

A 19-16 win for the Duke Blue Devils over the Virginia Cavaliers in college football, Friday, October 23: the box score, the top performers and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before the game →

Game report

The Duke Blue Devils beat the Virginia Cavaliers 19-16 in college football on Friday, October 23. The Duke Blue Devils won by three points; the Virginia Cavaliers finished with 353 total yards and the Duke Blue Devils with 327.

The Virginia Cavaliers had 195 rushing yards, while the Duke Blue Devils had 256 net passing yards.

The numbers

The Virginia Cavaliers gained 353 total yards, including 158 net passing yards and 195 rushing yards. The Duke Blue Devils gained 327 total yards, including 256 net passing yards and 71 rushing yards.

The Virginia Cavaliers had 2 turnovers and 22 first downs; the Duke Blue Devils had 1 turnover and 16 first downs. The Virginia Cavaliers held possession for 38:47, and the Duke Blue Devils for 21:13.

The Virginia Cavaliers converted 29.4% of third downs; the Duke Blue Devils converted 20%.

Top performers

For the Virginia Cavaliers, Beau Pribula completed 15 of 24 passes for 158 yards, with an interception. Jekail Middlebrook ran for 117 yards on 24 carries, with a touchdown, while John Rogers caught 5 passes for 65 yards. On defense, Kam Robinson had a sack and an interception; Will Bettridge made 3 of 4 field goals.

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For the Duke Blue Devils, Walker Eget completed 14 of 25 passes for 211 yards, with an interception. Nate Sheppard ran for 55 yards on 15 carries, with a touchdown, and Jonah Burton caught 4 passes for 59 yards. On defense, Che Ojarikre had 2 sacks; Gavin Strange made 2 of 2 field goals.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pregame probabilities are estimates, not certainties: the model gave the Virginia Cavaliers 39.7% to win and the Duke Blue Devils 60.3%. Its favorite was the Duke Blue Devils to win; the model's favorite won.

Before the game, the model had the Duke Blue Devils by 3.4 points, and they won by three points, less than projected.

See every number for this game in the Game Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and game records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

college football

Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils

Fri, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET

Final

16–19

The model before the game

Virginia Cavaliers
39.7%
Duke Blue Devils
60.3%

The model's favourite won.

The numbers

Virginia CavaliersStatisticDuke Blue Devils
2turnovers1
22first downs16
353total yards327
195rushing yards71
158net passing yards256
38:47time of possession21:13
29.4%third-down conversion rate20%
Open the Game Center

Tue, Oct 27 · 8:00 PM ET

American footballPreview· college football

Kennesaw State Owls vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Prediction & Preview

Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in college football, Wednesday, October 28. Goalorithm's model makes a Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders win the likelier result at 52%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ET

American footballPreview· college football

Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction & Preview

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at New Mexico State Aggies in college football, Wednesday, October 28. Goalorithm's model makes a Jacksonville State Gamecocks win the likelier result at 54%. The preview covers the records and recent results.

Wed, Oct 28 · 8:00 PM ET