Published October 16, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
The Duke Blue Devils visit the Virginia Cavaliers in college football on Friday, October 23, with kickoff at 7:00 p.m. ET. Goalorithm’s model makes a Duke Blue Devils win its likelier result and projects a close game. Its projections are estimates, not certainties.
What the model expects
The model gives the Virginia Cavaliers 39.7% and the Duke Blue Devils 60.3% to win. It projects 23.4 points for the Virginia Cavaliers, 26.8 for the Duke Blue Devils and 50.2 in all, with a margin of the Duke Blue Devils by 3.4 points.
Records and recent results
The Virginia Cavaliers are 4-2 overall this season, with 197 points scored and 115 allowed in 6 games. The Duke Blue Devils are 4-1, with 170 points scored and 72 allowed in 5 games; the Duke Blue Devils have the better record.
The Virginia Cavaliers beat the Syracuse Orange 28-25 at home on October 10, and before that lost 38-7 on the road to the Florida State Seminoles on October 3 and beat the Delaware Blue Hens 42-3 at home on September 26.
The Duke Blue Devils lost 28-25 on the road to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on October 10, and before that beat the William & Mary Tribe 62-7 at home on September 26.