Published October 23, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
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Match report
VfB Stuttgart were beaten 2-3 by Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga on Friday, October 23, with the teams level at the interval before the visitors finished the match in front. The final score records a contest in which VfB Stuttgart found the net but Borussia Mönchengladbach scored enough to take the result, a sharp departure from the expectation set by Goalorithm before kickoff.
The numbers
The scoreline was 1-1 at half-time, and the match ended with two goals for VfB Stuttgart and three goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach, five goals overall. Those figures capture the basic shape of the result: the teams were level at the break, but not at full time. VfB Stuttgart had scored, yet the final tally belonged to Borussia Mönchengladbach; there is no need to look beyond that difference to understand the outcome. The game was played at MHP Arena.
How the model called it
Before kickoff, the model gave VfB Stuttgart a 68.9% chance of winning, the draw 16.5%, and Borussia Mönchengladbach a 14.7% chance. These probabilities are estimates, not certainties. The model's most likely outcome was VfB Stuttgart to win, while it gave the result that occurred 14.7%. In other words, the model identified a different outcome as its leading call, and the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The match finished with Borussia Mönchengladbach taking the win rather than the outcome the model had selected as most likely. That gap between forecast and result is the central analytical point: the model's pre-match view favoured VfB Stuttgart, but the actual score awarded the points to Borussia Mönchengladbach. The probability assigned to the visitors' win shows that the model allowed for that possibility, even though it was not the model's leading outcome. The result therefore sits outside the forecast's central expectation, without being an outcome the model had ruled out.