Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
SC Paderborn 07 host Hamburger SV in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 9:30 a.m. ET. Their recent records and the model’s close call on the result give this fixture its central story.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is an SC Paderborn 07 win. Its outcome ordering is an SC Paderborn 07 win (38.8%), then a Hamburger SV win (36%), then a draw (25.2%); the home win is ahead of an away win, while the draw is less likely than either. These probabilities are estimates, not a settled result.
The model expects over 2.5 goals at 59.6%, against under 2.5 goals at 40.4%. It gives both teams scoring 58.1%, and at least one side failing to score 41.9%. The expected-goals figures are 2 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.1 for Hamburger SV.
The likeliest exact scores are 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.3%) and 1-0 (8.6%). They include a draw and home-win scorelines, while the wider outcome forecast also allows for a Hamburger SV win.
Form and standings
SC Paderborn 07's sequence is DLWLL, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats and 5 goals scored and 9 conceded. Their latest match was a 2-2 away draw with Werder Bremen on October 17; they are without a win in their last 2. The recent record includes a win and a draw as well as defeats, and the latest result was level.
Hamburger SV's sequence is WWWLL, with 3 wins and 2 defeats and 6 goals scored and 13 conceded. They most recently recorded a 1-0 home win against VfB Stuttgart on October 17 and have 3 wins in a row. Their recent results include both wins and defeats; the latest was a win without conceding.