Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
FC Augsburg host Union Berlin in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 9:30 a.m. ET. The model leans towards the hosts, while its expected-goals figures point to a pronounced gap between the sides. That forecast sits alongside uneven recent form for both clubs and a table in which FC Augsburg sit above Union Berlin.
What the model expects
The model's likeliest result is an FC Augsburg win, at 53.1%; it gives a draw 20.8% and a Union Berlin win 26.1%. These probabilities are estimates. The expected-goals figures are 3.7 for FC Augsburg and 0.6 for Union Berlin, a projection that makes the model's scoring outlook clear. Its lean is over 2.5 goals.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 78.9% and under 2.5 goals at 21.1%. It assigns 44.5% to both teams scoring and 55.5% to at least one side failing to score; that second figure does not mean a goalless draw. The most likely scorelines are 3-0 at 11.1%, 4-0 at 9.9% and 2-0 at 9.5%.
The bookmakers' implied probabilities are 51.3% for FC Augsburg, 24% for a draw and 24.7% for Union Berlin. The model gives an FC Augsburg win 53.1%, above the bookmakers' 51.3%. This leaves the model's central call and the market's implied view pointing in the same direction, while the model places its own probability on each possible outcome.
Form and standings
FC Augsburg's recent sequence is LDLDW, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats and 13 goals scored and 12 conceded. Their latest match was a 4-3 away defeat to SV Elversberg on October 17, and they are without a win in their last 4. The return of goals at both ends in that latest result is notable beside a recent record that has included draws as well as defeats.