Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
FSV Mainz 05 host Werder Bremen in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 9:30 a.m. ET. The model makes FSV Mainz 05 the likeliest winner, while its goal projections point to an open contest and the teams arrive with different recent records.
What the model expects
The probabilities are estimates; the model gives FSV Mainz 05 52.5%, a draw 23.1% and Werder Bremen 24.4%. Its likeliest result is an FSV Mainz 05 win. The draw and an away win also feature in the model's forecast, making the home-win lean a preference rather than a certainty.
The goals outlook leans towards over 2.5 goals at 64.2%, while both teams score 65.4%. Expected goals are level, at 1.7 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.7 for Werder Bremen. The model's likeliest exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%; its other listed scores are 1-2 (7.8%) and 2-1 (7.8%). Those projections give the match a clear goals story, but leave several possible scorelines in play.
The bookmakers' outcome order is an FSV Mainz 05 win (56.9%), then a draw (22.4%), then a Werder Bremen win (20.7%). The model's ordering is an FSV Mainz 05 win (52.5%), then a Werder Bremen win (24.4%), then a draw (23.1%); the model gives an FSV Mainz 05 win 52.5%, below the bookmakers' 56.9%. The two forecasts differ on the size of the home-win expectation, while both put a home win first.
Form and standings
FSV Mainz 05 come into the game after a 1-0 away win against FC Schalke 04 on October 17. Their sequence across the listed games is WLWLW, with 3 wins and 2 defeats and 14 goals scored and 10 conceded. The most recent result gives them a win to build on, and their overall record in that spell includes both victories and defeats.