Published October 22, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
RB Leipzig host SV Elversberg in Bundesliga on Saturday, October 24, with kick-off at 9:30 a.m. ET at Red Bull Arena, Leipzig. The model's clearest signal is a home win, even though SV Elversberg sit above RB Leipzig.
The model's probabilities are estimates. Its expected-goals figures point to a substantial gap between the sides, and its leading scorelines all have SV Elversberg failing to score. Both teams arrive after high-scoring matches: RB Leipzig lost heavily in its latest outing, while SV Elversberg won a close, goal-filled game.
What the model expects
The model's outcomes, from likeliest down, are an RB Leipzig win (66.2%), then an SV Elversberg win (18.3%), then a draw (15.5%). Its likeliest result is an RB Leipzig win. The expected-goals figures are 3 for RB Leipzig and 0.7 for SV Elversberg, putting the emphasis on the hosts to supply the scoring.
The model expects over 2.5 goals at 69%; its figure for under 2.5 goals at 31% is also part of the forecast. It gives 44.9% to both teams scoring and 55.1% to at least one side failing to score. The leading correct-score options are 2-0 (11.8%), 3-0 (11.2%) and 1-0 (8.3%). The model's lean is RB Leipzig to win. Against the bookmakers, the model gives an RB Leipzig win 66.2%, below the bookmakers' 71.1%.
Form and standings
RB Leipzig have LWLWL across their last 5 games, a record of 2 wins and 3 defeats and 13 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their latest result was a 6-1 away defeat to Bayern München on October 17. That defeat contrasts with the model's projected home scoring, while the recent record also includes wins.