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Match analysis · Major League Soccer

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San Diego 3-3 Houston Dynamo: Match Analysis & Model Review

San Diego 3-3 Houston Dynamo in Major League Soccer, Wednesday, October 14: the numbers behind the result and how Goalorithm's model called it.

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Home / News / Soccer / Match analysis

Published October 15, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk

Read the preview written before kickoff →

Match report

San Diego and Houston Dynamo finished level at 3-3 in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, with a 3-3 draw after a half-time score of 2-3. The match produced three goals for San Diego, three goals for Houston Dynamo and six goals in all. The final score leaves both sides with a share of the points.

San Diego had 66% possession and an expected-goals figure of 1.37; Houston Dynamo finished with 34% possession and 0.47 expected goals. Those figures frame a match in which possession and expected goals did not translate into a winner. The score remained level at full time, despite both teams scoring repeatedly.

The numbers

San Diego registered 9 shots, including 4 on target. Houston Dynamo recorded 6 attempts, with 3 on target. The expected-goals totals were 1.37 for San Diego and 0.47 for Houston Dynamo. The figures show the shot volume, accuracy and expected-goals return for each side, alongside the shared outcome.

Possession stood at 66% for San Diego and 34% for Houston Dynamo. The corner count was 4 for San Diego and 2 for Houston Dynamo; the save figures were 0 for San Diego and 2 for Houston Dynamo. Together, those numbers add detail to the match beyond the scoreline: they record how the ball was shared, the attempts each team made, and the saves recorded. Neither side finished ahead, and the final score was a 3-3 draw.

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Standout performers

C. Bakambu was San Diego's best-rated player, with a rating of 7.8 and 1 goal. That was the leading individual rating recorded for San Diego, alongside a goal contribution in a match that ended level.

For Houston Dynamo, Guilherme earned the best rating, 8.7, with 2 goals and 1 assist. The goals and assist formed a substantial contribution to Houston Dynamo's attacking return. Both players registered notable performances for their teams, while the result remained shared at full time.

How the model called it

Goalorithm's pre-match probabilities are estimates. The model gave San Diego a 43% chance of winning, assigned the draw 25.2%, and gave Houston Dynamo a 31.7% chance. Its most likely outcome was San Diego to win.

The model gave the actual result 25.2%; the result went against the model's most likely outcome. The draw was included in the forecast, and it was the outcome delivered by the match.

See every number for this game in the Match Center →

How this was written: an AI writer drafts the words from Goalorithm's own data. Every figure is filled in from our model and match records, never by the writer, and nothing we don't hold is guessed. Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties.

For informational/entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Major League Soccer

San Diego vs Houston Dynamo

Wed, Oct 14 · 10:30 PM ET · Snapdragon Stadium

Full time

3–3

Half-time 2–3

The model before the game

San Diego
43%
Draw
25.3%
Houston Dynamo
31.7%

The result went against the model's most likely outcome.

The numbers

San DiegoStatisticHouston Dynamo
0saves2
9shots6
4corners2
66%possession34%
1.37expected goals0.47
4shots on target3
Open the Match Center

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