Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Lyon host Crystal Palace in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with kick-off at 12:45 p.m. ET. The model makes Lyon the likeliest winner, but its outcome ordering also gives Crystal Palace a substantial chance of taking the points.
What the model expects
The model’s likeliest result is a Lyon win. Its full ordering is a Lyon win (40.8%), then a Crystal Palace win (33.1%), then a draw (26.2%); these probabilities are estimates. The match is projected at 1.7 expected goals for Lyon and 1.5 for Crystal Palace.
The model expects over 2.5 goals at 59.1%, while under 2.5 goals at 40.9%. It gives both teams a chance of scoring at 61.3%, against 38.7% for at least one side to fail to score. Its leading exact-score outcomes are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8.4%) and 1-2 (7.4%).
The bookmakers’ outcome ordering is a Lyon win (44%), then a Crystal Palace win (30.2%), then a draw (25.8%). On the home-win outcome, the model gives a Lyon win 40.8%, below the bookmakers' 44%.
Form and standings
Lyon arrive with form of WLDWW: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their most recent result was a 2-1 away win against Anderlecht on September 16.
Both clubs have 3 points from 1 game after one match. Crystal Palace sit above Lyon on the same points: Crystal Palace are 2nd in UEFA Europa League, while Lyon are 11th in UEFA Europa League.