Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Lech Poznan host Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with kick-off at 12:45 p.m. ET. The match is at Stadion Miejski, Poznan.
The standings give the fixture an immediate competition context: Bayer Leverkusen sit above Lech Poznan. Lech Poznan have 0 points from 1 game, while Bayer Leverkusen have 3 points from 1 game. Goalorithm’s estimates favour the visitors, with a Bayer Leverkusen win the likeliest result. The model expects more goals from Bayer Leverkusen than Lech Poznan, while its projections also allow for both sides to score.
What the model expects
The model’s outcome order is a Bayer Leverkusen win (59.2%), then a draw (22.2%), then a Lech Poznan win (18.6%). These are estimates; they give a clear lead to an away win in the forecast, with a draw ahead of a Lech Poznan victory. The model’s lean is Bayer Leverkusen to win.
Expected goals are 1.2 for Lech Poznan and 2.3 for Bayer Leverkusen. The leading score projection is 1-2 at 9.2%; the other listed scores are 1-1 at 8.9% and 0-2 at 8%. These scorelines all include goals for Bayer Leverkusen, while the first two also have Lech Poznan on the scoresheet.
For the total, the model gives over 2.5 goals at 65.6% and under 2.5 goals at 34.4%. It puts both teams scoring at 61.6%, with at least one side failing to score at 38.4%. The projected away advantage and the expected-goals figures make Bayer Leverkusen the stronger source of attacking output in this forecast, but the score projections include a level result as well as away wins.
The bookmakers’ outcome order is a Bayer Leverkusen win (58.1%), then a draw (21.2%), then a Lech Poznan win (20.7%). On the away-win estimate, the model gives a Bayer Leverkusen win 59.2%, above the bookmakers' 58.1%. Both sets of figures have the same leading outcome; the model’s stated difference is in the size of that estimate.