Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Union St. Gilloise host Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15 at 12:45 p.m. ET. The model's likeliest result is a Union St. Gilloise win, while its score forecasts include a draw and home win among the leading possibilities.
The match is at Den Dreef Stadium, Heverley. Union St. Gilloise come into the fixture with 3 points from 1 game, and Real Sociedad with 0 points from 1 game. The teams meet with contrasting opening positions in the competition table, but the forecast leaves several possible outcomes in play.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model's outcomes from likeliest down are a Union St. Gilloise win (43.7%), then a Real Sociedad win (29.8%), then a draw (26.5%). Its expected-goals projection is 1.7 for Union St. Gilloise and 1.4 for Real Sociedad, pointing to scoring contributions from both sides in the forecast.
The model puts over 2.5 goals at 57.8% and under 2.5 goals at 42.2%. It gives both teams scoring 59.8%; at least one side fails to score in 40.2% of the model's scenarios. That latter measure includes games in which one team scores and the other does not, not only goalless draws.
The leading exact-score forecasts are 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (8.7%) and 1-0 (7.9%). They cover a level scoreline and two possible Union St. Gilloise wins. The model's top score prediction is not the only route represented in its outcome forecast.