Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Red Bull Salzburg host AC Milan in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15. The model’s likeliest result is an AC Milan win, while the standings put Salzburg above their visitors. Kick-off is at 12:45 p.m. ET at Red Bull Arena, Salzburg.
Salzburg arrive on a positive run, and the model points to goals as a feature of the contest. Its estimates leave room for either side to take the points, with Milan’s win the leading outcome.
What the model expects
These probabilities are estimates. The model’s outcome ordering is an AC Milan win (41.9%), then a Red Bull Salzburg win (32.1%), then a draw (25.9%). It expects 1.4 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.6 for AC Milan, with over 2.5 goals at 57.5% and under 2.5 goals at 42.5%. The model gives both teams to score 59.9%, while 40.1% is its figure for at least one side failing to score.
The leading exact-score forecasts are 1-1 (11.2%), 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-1 (7.7%). The bookmakers’ ordering is an AC Milan win (45.6%), then a Red Bull Salzburg win (28%), then a draw (26.4%), and the model gives an AC Milan win 41.9%, below the bookmakers' 45.6%. Together, the forecasts frame a contest in which the model favours Milan without ruling out a Salzburg win or a draw.
Form and standings
Salzburg’s recent sequence is WWWDW, amounting to 4 wins and 1 draw, with 9 goals scored and 3 conceded. Their latest result was a 1-0 away win against Levski Sofia on September 17, and they are on 3 wins in a row. That is the immediate form picture for the hosts ahead of the fixture.