Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
Celje host Omonia Nicosia in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, October 15, with kick-off at 12:45 p.m. ET at Stadion Z’dežele, Celje. Omonia Nicosia arrive after a win in their latest listed match, while Celje most recently lost. The model puts an Omonia Nicosia win first, but its forecast also gives a substantial chance to a draw or a Celje win.
The table has Omonia Nicosia above Celje, with both sides having played one match. The model’s probabilities are estimates; its outlook points to a closely balanced contest rather than a settled scoreline.
What the model expects
The model gives Celje 32.2%, a draw 28.2% and Omonia Nicosia 39.6%; its likeliest result is an Omonia Nicosia win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Celje and 1.4 for Omonia Nicosia, a projection that puts the sides close on attacking output.
The model gives over 2.5 goals at 50.1% and under 2.5 goals at 49.9%. It puts both teams scoring at 54.1%, while its estimate for at least one side failing to score is 45.9%. The leading exact score is 1-1 at 12.3%; 0-1 at 9.3% and 0-0 at 8.3% follow. The score list therefore includes a level contest, a narrow Omonia Nicosia win and a goalless draw.
The model gives an Omonia Nicosia win 39.6%, above the bookmakers' 36.1%. The model’s outcomes from likeliest down are an Omonia Nicosia win (39.6%), then a Celje win (32.2%), then a draw (28.2%), leaving all three results in play in its forecast.