Published October 14, 2026 · By the Goalorithm model desk
Preview
San Diego host Houston Dynamo in Major League Soccer on Wednesday, October 14, with the visitors sitting above their hosts in the Western Conference. Houston arrive after a draw with Minnesota United FC, while San Diego’s latest outing was a defeat to New York Red Bulls.
The model gives San Diego the likeliest outcome, with goals expected at both ends. The fixture brings together San Diego’s ongoing winless run and Houston Dynamo’s mixed recent sequence.
What the model expects
The model gives San Diego 43% to win, a draw 25.2% and Houston Dynamo 31.8% to win. These are estimates. Its likeliest result is a San Diego win, but the draw and an away victory remain live possibilities in the forecast.
The model leans towards over 2.5 goals at 71.1%, with under 2.5 goals at 28.9% for fewer. It gives both teams 70.2% to score, while the chance that at least one side fails to score is 29.8%. Expected goals are 2.1 for San Diego and 1.7 for Houston Dynamo.
The most likely score predictions are 1-1 at 9%, 2-1 at 8.2% and 2-2 at 6.7%. Those outcomes suggest a forecast with goals from both sides, rather than a clear expectation of one team keeping the other out.
Form and standings
San Diego’s recent sequence is LDDLL: 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 17 conceded. They are without a win in their last 5. Their latest result was a 4-1 away defeat to New York Red Bulls on October 10, a defeat that extended a difficult spell.